Individual forecasting behavior

Participants of a laboratory experiment judgmentally forecast a time series. In order to support their forecasts they are given a highly correlated indicator with a constant lead period of one. The subjects are not given any other information than the time series realizations and have to base their forecasts on pure eyeballing/chart-reading. Standard economic models do not appropriately account for the features of individual forecasts: These are typically affected by intra- and inter-individual instability of behavior. We extend the scheme theory by Otwin Becker for the explanation of individual forecasts by simple schemes based on visually perceived characteristics of the time series. We find that the forecasts of most subjects can be explained very accurately by only a few schemes.     

A genetic approach for strategic resource allocation planning

Enterprises often implement a measurement system to monitor their march towards their strategic goals. Although this way it is possible to assess the progress of each goal, there is no structured way to reconsider resource allocation to those goals and to plan an optimal (or near optimal) allocation scheme. In this study we propose a genetic approach to match each goal with an autonomous entity (agent) with a specific resource sharing behavior. The overall performance is evaluated through a set of functions and genetic algorithms are used to eventuate in approximate optimal behavior’s schemes. To outline the strategic goals of the enterprise we used the balanced scorecard method. Letting agents deploy their sharing behavior over simulation time, we measure the scorecard’s performance and detect distinguished behaviors, namely recommendations for resource allocation.     

核电资源替代煤电资源的临界时点分析模型

随着煤电资源的逐渐耗竭,传统电力资源的替代资源开发成为我国电力可持续发展的重要途径。为探讨核电资源替代煤电资源的经济规律,构建了一个电力资源社会价值评估模型。以电力资源社会价值最大化为目标,运用动态优化理论求解,得出核电资源替代煤电资源的临界替代时点,分析核电资源替代煤电资源的替代条件,剖析电力生产外部性对电力资源配置效率的影响程度及导致电力资源配置低效率的具体原因。认为电力生产部门的外部性影响电力资源的配置效率,阻碍核电资源替代煤电资源的发展进程。就电力生产部门的实际情况提出了相应的政策建议,以促进低碳清洁的核电资源替代煤电资源,实现环境、经济与电力可持续发展。     

基于改进DEA——以复相关系数为基准的滞后期的我国产业结构演化效率评价

为了评价我国的产业结构演化效率,本文构建了我国产业结构演化评价指标体系。针对传统DEA方法的局限性,文中引入以复相关系数为基准的滞后期,解决了产业结构演化评价中投入和产出之间的滞后性问题,建立更加有效的DEA改进模型,对我国产业结构演化效率进行评价。结论表明,各产业技术效率大部分时间大于规模效率,而且投入要素出现不同程度的冗余情况,近年来,第一、二产业固定资产投资和就业人员冗余程度有减轻的趋势,第二产业能源和水资源消耗较大,同时第三产业各要素冗余程度均有所加深。针对这一现象,本文提出了相关对策建议。     

Evolutionary model of the growth and size of firms

The key idea of this model is that firms are the result of an evolutionary process. Based on demand and supply considerations the evolutionary model presented here derives explicitly Gibrat’s law of proportionate effects as the result of the competition between products. Applying a preferential attachment mechanism for firms, the theory allows to establish the size distribution of products and firms. Also established are the growth rate and price distribution of consumer goods. Taking into account the characteristic property of human activities to occur in bursts, the model allows also an explanation of the size–variance relationship of the growth rate distribution of products and firms. Further the product life cycle, the learning (experience) curve and the market size in terms of the mean number of firms that can survive in a market are derived. The model also suggests the existence of an invariant of a market as the ratio of total profit to total revenue. The relationship between a neo-classic and an evolutionary view of a market is discussed. The comparison with empirical investigations suggests that the theory is able to describe the main stylized facts concerning the size and growth of firms.     

Testing the neo-classical and the Newtonian theory of production

We search for regularities observed in the production of goods by studying Finnish data. Despite the heterogeneity of sectoral growth rates in Finland, unit root is observed in annual productions in all main sectors and all manufacturing industries. Thus a linear time trend exists in annual flows of production. This is inconsistent with the static neo-classical theory that assumes firms to produce at their equilibrium flow of production. A different framework is thus needed for modeling the behavior of firms. We test a Newtonian type of model for production against the neo-classical one, and our observation is that the former works better with annual data at every manufacturing industry in Finland.     

面向学生能力培养的大学物理实验教学探索与实践

利用现有教学资源,面向全体大学物理实验选课学生进行了以学生为主体的实验教学探索。提出了学生能力培养的实验教学原则。从引导学生提出问题,改进实验处理和研究方法,开展课题研究性实验和学生参与科技制作四个方面介绍了大学物理实验教学的探索及实践。     

基于Geo/Geo/1(E,SV)排队系统的均衡止步策略

基于单重休假Geo/Geo/1排队系统,研究顾客的均衡止步策略,首次将休假服务机制引入到离散时间排队经济学模型中. 顾客基于“收入--支出”结构,自主决定去留. 利用拟生灭过程理论,运用差分方程求解技巧,对系统进行了稳态分析,得到了顾客的平均逗留时间;进而构造适当的函数,给出了寻找均衡止步策略的具体方法并证明之;而后分析了在均衡策略下, 系统的稳态行为和社会收益;最后通过数值实验讨论了系统参数对均衡行为的影响.     

Noncomputability,unpredictability, undecidability,and unsolvability in economic and finance theories

We outline, briefly, the role that issues of the nexus between noncomputability and unpredictability, on the one hand, and between undecidability and unsolvability, on the other hand, have played in Computable Economics (CE). The mathematical underpinnings of CE are provided by (classical) recursion theory, varieties of computable and constructive analysis and aspects of combinatorial optimization. The inspiration for this outline was provided by Professor Graça's thought‐provoking recent article. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 2012